Polls, Pols, and Pundits Suggest Ossoff Victory

For Jewish voters, Georgia’s U.S. Senate race may come down to which concerns them more: A) Votes by incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff opposing the delivery or sale of specific weapons to Israel or B) Republican Rep. Mike Collins’ links to people espousing white nationalist, antisemitic, or other bigoted viewpoints.

Ossoff, a 39-year-old Atlanta native, is seeking a second six-year term. He defeated Republican incumbent Sen. David Perdue in a January 2021 runoff, becoming the first Jewish Georgian elected to the Senate.

Collins, a 59-year-old native of Jackson, Ga., has represented Georgia’s 10th congressional district for two terms. He defeated former college football coach Derek Dooley in a June runoff.

Republicans hold a 53 top 47 advantage in the Senate.

As multiple polls show Ossoff leading by several percentage points, national political media have shifted their attention away from Georgia, amid published reports about Republican leaders (privately, if not publicly) focusing their attention — and their money — elsewhere. At this writing, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and The Cook Political Report list the race as “likely Democratic,” while Inside Elections lists the race as leaning Democratic.

Two debates were scheduled (both after this article was filed): Oct. 8, hosted by Gray Media television stations, and Oct. 13, hosted by the Atlanta Press Club.

Viewers could expect to hear examples of the candidates’ antipathy toward each other, sharp differences over issues of domestic and foreign policy, as well as Ossoff’s blistering criticism of President Donald Trump and Collins’ effusive support for Trump.

Ossoff’s father is Jewish, his mother is not. Because Judaism traditionally has not recognized patrilineal descent, Ossoff underwent a formal conversion, including immersion in a mikvah, before becoming a bar mitzvah at The Temple, a Reform congregation.

Despite a 90 percent record of supporting aid to Israel, five votes on Senate resolutions (all of which failed) that opposed the sale or export of specific U.S.-made weapons to Israel may be the fulcrum on which Ossoff’s Jewish support balances.

On Nov. 20, 2024, Ossoff voted in favor of two resolutions, opposing the sale to Israel of high explosive tank and mortar cartridges. He voted against a resolution that opposed the export of guidance kits for joint direct attack munitions (JDAMS), an air-to-ground weapon.

Ossoff said on the Senate floor: “The United States is and will remain Israel’s closest ally. Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad. But no foreign government is simply entitled as a matter of right to American weapons with no strings attached. No foreign government, no matter how close an ally, gets everything it wants, whenever it wants, to use however it wants.”

An open letter coordinated by the Jewish Federation of Greater Atlanta and signed by nearly 50 local organizations, synagogues, and schools — claiming to represent 90 percent of Jewish Georgians — excoriated Ossoff (and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who backed all three resolutions).

In an open letter, the Savannah Jewish Federation’s declared itself “disappointed” by Ossoff and Warnock and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution published an op-ed, signed by 22 rabbis from the Orthodox, Conservative, and Reform movements, criticizing the pair.

Ossoff and Warnock received support in an open letter from the Atlanta chapter of J Street, a self-identified “pro-Israel, pro-peace” organization.

On July 30, 2025, Ossoff voted for a resolution opposing the export of more than 20,000 fully automatic rifles to Israel and against a resolution that opposed the sale of air-to-ground munitions.

On April 15 this year, Ossoff voted in favor of resolutions opposing the sale to Israel of Caterpillar bulldozers and 1,000-pound bombs. The first received 40 votes in favor, a high-water mark for the number of Democratic senators supporting restrictions on military sales to Israel.

Collins’ controversies include a son-in-law spouting white nationalist beliefs, a now-former chief of staff fired for briefing white supremacists, and, most recently, links reported between other campaigns aides and American Patriots USA, a group led by a former Ku Klux Klan and neo-Nazi leader. Collins’ son-in-law, David Alan Scheer II, has more than 1.5 million followers on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and Telegram.

CNN reported on July 16 that Scheer “featured in campaign photos, registered to vote at a Collins-owned property, and appearing at his victory party — is a white nationalist influencer who has promoted Nazi imagery and called for ‘clearing our land of other people.’”

Scheer cited his wife, Collins’ daughter, as the source of a graphic claiming “proof Jews control our government through finance.”

Collins told Axios that Scheer “has had no role in my campaign whatsoever, and I don’t believe or support those views and I have always condemned racism and antisemitism regardless of the source.”

At an invitation-only July 29 session with about 80 members of the Jewish community, at a home in Sandy Springs, Collins said: “Am I America First? You bet I am. But you know what America First means to me? It’s protecting Israel.”

A woman in the audience told Collins that she and her friends wanted to vote for him, but needed to hear him specifically denounce white supremacy.

Collins replied: “Hate has no place in this country.”

Collins’ chief of staff Kip Talley resigned in July after reports surfaced about Talley (when he was deputy chief of staff) taking part in a group chat that included prominent white nationalists Nick Fuentes and Richard Spenser, and claiming that he could use his influence to free from prison alt-right internet troll Charles C. Johnson, a Holocaust denier and racist.

Collins touts legislation that he authored, mandating that immigrants in the U.S. illegally who are charged with crimes be detained for possible deportation, a measure named for Laken Riley, a University of Georgia nursing student murdered in 2024. It was the first bill Trump signed in his second term in office. Ossoff voted in favor of the bill when it passed as a stand-alone measure in January 2025, after initially voting against a procedural motion on a spending bill that included immigration language that he opposed.

Ossoff has found support — much of it based on the delivery of constituent services — from such unexpected quarters as Georgia-based conservative talk radio hosts, the chair of the Georgia Peanut Commission (a life-long Republican), and the Republican mayors of four Georgia cities. City Commissioner (and former Mayor) Gail Fry of Toccoa, Ga., who voted against Ossoff six years ago, told the New York Times: “We have gotten more support from Senator Ossoff than any other office that we’ve contacted,” citing an $8.4 million federal grant to replace aging natural-gas infrastructure. “He calls us and says, ‘What do you need?’”
Ossoff has swamped Collins in fundraising.

Since Jan. 1, 2025, Ossoff had raised $68.7 million and had $42.6 million available as of June 30, according to campaign finance filings. Collins in the same period raised just $4.95 million and had slightly more than $2 million available. The next deadline to file updated campaign finance reports is Oct. 15.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Sept. 16 that Ossoff was transferring $3.6 million from his coffers to support the Democratic Party of Georgia, allowing the national party to spend elsewhere. As of September, in nine closely watched Senate races, Georgia was the only one where Democrats were outspending Republicans in purchasing advertising time.

Collins has claimed that the vast majority of Ossoff’s campaign contributions come from outside of Georgia, saying that the Democrat is “bought and paid for by New York and California donors who don’t understand or care about Georgia’s values or culture.”

Ossoff’s campaign acknowledged a fundraising trend in an April statement: “The surge in national cash reflects a new political reality in Georgia. As the state cements its status as a premier battleground, out-of-state money is no longer the exception. It’s fast becoming the norm.”

Collins frequently accuses Ossoff of using the 2026 campaign as a stepping stone to a 2028 run for the Democratic presidential nomination, something Ossoff repeatedly has said he has “zero interest” in doing.