Syria Emerges as New Ally in Middle East

For nearly five decades, Syria and the United States have had an often-contentious relationship. In 1979, the U.S. named the country to its initial list of State Sponsors of Terrorism. Diplomatic relations were cut in 2012 after the start of the Syrian civil war.

But last year, the two countries exchanged ambassadors again. Today, Syria, which had been a long-term client state of Russia, has now positioned itself as an important supporter of U.S. policy in the Middle East and a foe of militant Islamist groups like ISIS.

According to Rana Shabb, who studies Syria and the Middle East for the Carter Center, part of the basis for the encouraging outlook is the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad in 2024 and the effort by the new Syrian government to break with its past.

She told Atlanta’s World Affairs Council recently that Syria today wants to present itself as a more reasonable alternative to the aggressive policies of al-Assad and his father who ruled Syria with an iron fist for almost 50 years. And the effort seems to be paying off.

“Currently, the United States and Syria are considered allies,” Shabb commented. “There is a warm relationship, something that was unimaginable before the fall of the regime on Dec. 8, 2024. The Syrian government joined the coalition against ISIS, and the U.S. has been lifting sanctions, and frankly, has been leading on that front.”

In August, the U.S. government formally rescinded its designation of Syria as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. The action completes a series of policy changes by the Trump Administration since June of last year to ease economic and political sanctions against the country.

In the past year, the Syrian government, headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, himself a former ally of Al-Qaeda, has formally joined the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. It has also helped to shut down the once thriving pipeline of arms from Iran to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. As a result of the shift, embassies of some important world powers have begun to reopen. This summer, French President Emmanuel Macron became the first important Western leader to visit the new government in Damascus.

Last year, Syria reportedly began back channel diplomatic discussions with Israel for the first time in more than a decade. The key to all of these international changes, according to Shabb, is the role of the American government.

“Everybody views this as a golden opportunity for change,” Shabb said. “It doesn’t mean that the road is easy, but everybody is interested in playing ball.”

The reason for the sudden thaw in relations may be more pragmatic than political. Syria’s long civil war, that began in 2011, killed an estimated 500,000 and displaced 13 million people, six million of whom live in neighboring countries as refugees. The economy collapsed and vast areas of the country lie in ruin. It has been estimated by the World Bank that it will cost at least $216 billion to rebuild the country. That is 10 times Syria’s GDP in 2024, the last year of the Assad regime.

Shabb, who last visited Syria for the Carter Center in June of last year, described Syria as a nation that remains long on promises made by the new president, with much still to accomplish.

“One way to look for domestic legitimacy is to track what those promises and commitments are,” Shabb pointed out. “The first one is unity of the land, sovereignty of the Syrian territory. Number two is civil peace and number three is a strong economy.”

Despite some hopeful signs of progress, the government of Israel, which fought three wars with Syria, is said to remain cautious. After the fall of Assad, the IDF moved into southwest Syria and took over the demilitarized buffer zone there. It has actively supported the Druze militias in resisting the efforts of the Syrian government to disarm them and to occupy their communities.

Well-informed intelligence sources in Israel have indicated that they still see little reasons to fully trust the new regime in Syria. New security arrangements between Syria and Israel are likely to come slowly and in carefully considered stages.

While the new leader of Syria presents himself as a reformed Islamist, Israeli observers believe he is surrounded by supporters who are dedicated to the elimination of Israel as a Jewish state. The feeling, generally, in Israel is that it will take time for the old guard to disappear and a more friendly Syria to take root.