Falcons Hit Midseason at 3-6 in Last Place

The Atlanta Falcons’ 3-6 midseason record, while surely underwhelming, belies their flashes of potential for a second-half turnaround and not-yet-preposterous odds to enter the postseason field. Though it may sound preposterous at this hour, the Falcons, by virtue of playing in the woebegone NFC South, arguably have a better chance of making the playoffs than do the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and Dallas Cowboys. Such is life in the NFC where there is a clear and inequitable balance of power among the divisions.

But any serious discussion of the Falcons returning to the playoffs for the first time since January 2018 needs to take into consideration the many flaws on display in this season’s first couple months.

For a team entering 2026 with a new-look coaching staff under Kevin Stefanski and promising young starting quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., the first half has largely been a colossal disappointment. After last Sunday’s 34-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Madrid, one in which the Falcons saw an early 10-7 advantage quickly vanish, Arthur Blank’s franchise is nestled into second place/last place in the NFC South. The Falcons have dropped four of their past five contests and have been thrashed by divisional foes (Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.)

All-world running back Bijan Robinson is still racking up all-purpose yards every week, but the offense’s lack of depth has been glaring in recent weeks. Take away his four-interception debacle against Tampa on Nov. 1, Penix Jr. has been more than serviceable under center — but hasn’t yet lived up to the billing of a No. 8 overall selection. The run defense continues to be suspect most weeks. Meanwhile, 42-year-old placekicker Nick Folk has already misfired on four field goal attempts, including a very makeable one from 38 yards out against Cincy.

Last Sunday in Europe, penalties (12 for 88 yards) proved to be one of the chief culprits behind Atlanta’s demise while the secondary was torched by Bengals QB Joe Burrow and stud wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

“We had too many self-inflicted things today that will make it really hard to win vs. any opponent,” Stefanski said, “and in this case, a very good football team.”

“There were some critical moments, whether that was a miscommunication on defense, whether that was the 12 penalties that we had, those are key,” veteran safety Jessie Bates said in the Falcons post-game locker room. “It doesn’t seem like a big thing but when you’re playing against a really good team and you’re playing late in these, late in the season, you’ve gotta be at your best because that margin of error just becomes smaller and smaller as you get deeper into the season. Whether that’s our offense starting at the 10-yard line, that’s not winning football.”
[Note: Atlanta has since traded Bates to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 2027 second-round draft pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick.]

Sunday’s dispiriting performance overseas marked the second consecutive week that the Falcons were ransacked. Back on Nov. 1 at soggy Raymond James Stadium, Atlanta was similarly manhandled against the Buccaneers, whose longtime owner and co-chairman, Joel Glazer, is a member of the Jewish community. In a once-in-a-lifetime game played out under a punishing downpour and wind gusts, Tampa starting quarterback Baker Mayfield did not complete a single pass — he only had three attempts — yet his team shut out the Falcons, 16-0. The Falcons were simply overwhelmed, getting dominated at the line of scrimmage and outrushed by 225 yards, while Penix had the four turnovers.

“Disappointed in the result, like you can imagine,” Stefanski said after the beatdown on Florida’s west coast. “Obviously, you have to play the game that is presented in front of you. The conditions were what they were for both teams, and we didn’t do a good enough job as a team.”

None of the Falcons, to their credit, was using the wacky weather to justify the lackluster performance against their perennial divisional rival.

“There is not too much of a challenge,” Robinson said of the rain. “All you have to do is just run it efficiently and that can open up some other stuff with the play action pass. I know that these games are wet ball games but, for us, that can’t matter.”

Though the Falcons have been outscored 50-17 over the past two Sundays — not to mention they opened the season losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Panthers by an aggregate 54-16 margin — the 2026 season hasn’t been all doom and gloom.

There have been glimpses of hope such as the evening of Sept. 24 when Atlanta marched into Lambeau Field and scored a resounding 35-14 win over a very good Green Bay Packers team. Or a month later when an undefeated, albeit banged-up, San Francisco 49ers team rolled into town and Atlanta escaped with a 29-20 upset.

Pragmatically, and most importantly, the aforementioned NFC South continues to be the worst division in the NFL, a trend that has been true ever since Tom Brady retired from the Bucs after the 2022 season. As of press time, Atlanta is merely a half-game behind co-division leaders Carolina and New Orleans, two mediocre-at-best franchises that don’t loom as serious contenders to play deep into January. Tampa, also at 3-6, is in the cellar with Atlanta and has grossly underperformed thus far.

But for the Falcons, the second-half ledger is downright brutal. Up next are the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by a post-bye trip to the Minnesota Vikings (Nov. 29), Dec. 6 matchup against the Detroit Lions, and Week 14 tilt against the Cleveland Browns. If the Falcons hold their own against those heavyweights, the NFC South crown would likely still be within reach as the final three games are all division matchups.

However, that appears to be a big if.