Winds of Change Blow Through US-Israel Relations

There “khamsin” is a hot, dry, powerful wind that blows across Israel from the east, churning the desert sands.

The accompanying plunge in barometric pressure can cause severe headaches.

The political equivalent of a khamsin is blowing in Israel and across the length and breadth of the United States.

In this country, a frontal system marked in blue shoved aside another frontal system designated in red, transferring a headache from those feeling blue to those seeing red.

In Israel, the 120-seat Knesset elected on Oct. 27 convened on Nov. 10, with Benjamin Netanyahu functioning as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has given Gadi Eisenkot, the Yashar (“Upright”) Party leader and former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, the first opportunity to solidify a Knesset majority and form a government, with the son of Moroccan immigrants as prime minister. Eisenkot has 28 days to complete the task, with another 14 possible. If he fails, Herzog may turn to Netanyahu, virtually the only prime minister a generation of Israelis have known.

The U.S.-Israel relationship was discussed in a paper published in mid-October by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israel’s premier think tank on military and security issues.

The author acknowledged the criticism of Israel from America’s political right and left flanks: “At this stage, these trends do not undermine the strategic alliance, but they do undermine the broad base of support on which it rested for decades.”

A Pew Research Center survey in March (3,507 American adults) found that 60 percent viewed Israel unfavorably, compared with 53 percent in 2025 and 42 percent in 2022.

A Quinnipiac University poll in June (1,165 registered voters), reported that 48 percent felt the U.S. is too supportive of Israel — the highest percentage since Quinnipiac first asked the question in 2017.

The INSS paper also focused on trends “in Israeli discourse and policy since Oct 7, 2023, some of which are rooted in radical right-wing worldviews.”

This caught my attention: “The United States is a ‘declining power’ and, given its ongoing social and political shifts, will soon abandon Israel in any event. Excessive dependence on the United States exposes Israel to the influence of a progressive American value system that is incompatible with Israel’s Jewish character. Severing ties with the United States is therefore not only inevitable, but essential to Israel’s independence and the resilience of its Jewish national identity.”

Netanyahu told The Economist magazine in January that he wanted to wean Israel off U.S. aid over a 10-year period, favoring a transition to a partnership funding the development and integration of U.S. and Israeli technology. In a mid-September speech, he envisioned Israel becoming a “Super Sparta,” self-reliant and capable of producing its own weapons if cut off from foreign supplies and trade.

The current 10-year Memorandum of Understanding, the basis for $3.8 billion in annual aid, expires in 2028. Three quarters of that money remains in the U.S. to finance Israeli purchases of “made in the USA” weaponry. But now Israel’s military and treasury may have to adjust to buying these armaments without U.S. financing.

On Nov. 3, as Americans voted, Trump announced that U.S. aid to Israel would cease at the end of 2026. “We made a deal months ago that we’re stopping, and they’re fine with it because, you know, they’ve become a very successful country. They don’t need it,” he told Fox News.

Trump viewed the aid as a liability. “Why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like [Michigan’s Democratic Sen.-elect Abdul] El-Sayed when they don’t need it? It’s a bad talking point,” he said.

Many Jewish Americans have voiced concern about election victories by left-wing and progressive Democrats who accuse Israel of genocide, call it an apartheid state, denounce Zionism, and demand an end to U.S. aid.

Jewish groups contend that a much larger number of Democrats elected to Congress who are considered supportive of Israel will dilute the influence of those stridently anti-Israel.

In April, 40 Senate Democrats voted to oppose the sale of Caterpillar bulldozers (which Israel armors for use by the Israel Defense Forces), a high-water mark for such expressions of displeasure. This and votes on similar resolutions opposing the sale or export of specific weapons (all of which failed) suggest that an increasing number of Democrats have found room in their political calculus to oppose Israeli policies when they feel it necessary.

Yair Lapid, who led Knesset opposition to Netanyahu and is a partner in Eisenkot’s effort to form Israel’s next government, wrote on X: “These people aren’t against Israel. They’re against extremist ministers who say crazy things. They’re against settler violence. They’re against a government they don’t understand. They’re mainly against Netanyahu — for them, anything connected to him is toxic.”

Joshua Leifer, a columnist for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, warned on Nov. 4 that: “A change in the Israeli leadership will not be enough to arrest the gathering tide. The debate in the United States has swung so much that the central question is no longer whether the U.S.-Israel relationship should be reformulated, but how severe the steps should be for punishing Israel for its wrongdoing. Such steps include possible conditions on arms or even a total embargo; a possible settlement boycott or even large-scale sanctions.”

This remains to be seen, but clearly, winds of change are blowing. Sands are shifting. It’s not a mirage.