Israel Could Strike Iran if Attack is Imminent
Defense officials weigh options, say preventative action only possible if there is absolute certainty that intelligence on Iran’s intentions is accurate.
Israel would consider launching a preemptive strike to deter Iran if it uncovered airtight evidence that Tehran was preparing to mount an attack, Hebrew media reported after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened Israel’s security chiefs for a meeting on Aug. 4.
The meeting, attended by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, Mossad head David Barnea, and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, was held amid preparations for anticipated attacks on Israel by Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
The assessment that Iran is likely to attack Israel in the coming days or weeks follows last week’s back-to-back assassinations of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran has blamed Israel for Haniyeh’s death and has vowed to retaliate.
Israel is not certain what to expect from Iran and its proxies, reports have indicated, and so is discussing a wide range of options as to how it can best respond to, or prevent, an anticipated assault.
During the meeting with Netanyahu, the option of striking Iran as a deterrence measure was discussed, Ynet reported, although security officials stressed that such a move would only be authorized if Israel received definite intelligence confirming that Tehran was about to launch an attack of its own.
Jerusalem would require its own intelligence on the issue to match up with U.S. intelligence on the matter, the report said, and even if it did match, it may still choose to avoid going down the route of a preemptive strike.
Former war cabinet observer Gadi Eisenkot, whose National Unity party bolted the wartime coalition in June, told Army Radio that he and his party leader, Benny Gantz, had demanded a much tougher response to Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on April 13-14, to deter future such attacks, but Netanyahu disagreed.
“That night, I and Gantz demanded a much more powerful reaction to convey the message to the Iranians that the firing of 500 missiles, rockets, and drones cannot pass quietly — Netanyahu chose otherwise,” Eisenkot said, referring to Israel’s relatively tame and delayed subsequent strike on Iran.
With his city under relentless Hezbollah rocket fire, the mayor of Kiryat Shomina, Avichai Stern, said that he did not understand why Israel’s leadership was not preemptively striking at Hezbollah, rather than waiting for further attacks. “When did our army stop carrying out preemptive attacks to protect us?” he asked. “Don’t they know how to get to the weapons stores and launchers?”
Like Israel, the U.S. was said to be unsure what an attack by Iran could look like, as it believes Tehran has yet to come to a final decision and is unlikely to have finished coordinating with its proxies.
In addition to a U.S.-led international coalition that has been taking shape in recent days to thwart any attacks, officials were said to believe that another advantage Israel has in its arsenal, which it did not have when Iran previously attacked on April 13, is foreknowledge.
As the April attack was the first time that Iran ever launched an attack from its own soil, there were a lot of unknowns, including uncertainty about how large the assault would be.
This time around, however, Israel will know if the attack is shaping up to be similar in scope to the previous one — when around 99 percent of the roughly 300 missiles and drones launched from Iran were intercepted by Israel and its allies — or if it will be larger, as some assessments have reportedly indicated will be the case.
Even if the attack is larger, the assessment from within the government is that Israel will be able to withstand it and will once again be able to mount an appropriate defense with the help of a coalition of allies, Ynet reported.
At the same time as Israel and the U.S. prepare for whatever attack Iran ultimately chooses to launch, Washington and its allies, both in the West and in the Middle East, have continued to push both Israel and Iran to de-escalate the situation, and to avoid the possibility of triggering an all-out regional war.
To that end, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Iran on Sunday with a plea for the region to be able to live in “peace, security and stability,” without further escalation.
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