Israel is a Talking Point in White House Race
Jewish Americans, particularly non-Orthodox, rank other issues as higher priorities when voting.
Dave Schechter is a veteran journalist whose career includes writing and producing reports from Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East.
There has been plenty of talk about Jewish interests during this unusual presidential campaign, a seemingly outsized amount for a 2.4 percent segment of the U.S. population.
Some this stems from the misimpression that Jewish Americans are single-issue voters and Israel is that issue, despite repeated surveys that show other issues ranking higher for non-Orthodox Jews, while Orthodox Jews make Israel a greater priority.
The conventional wisdom, based on recent election cycles, is that the Democratic candidate will draw roughly 70 percent or better of the Jewish vote (estimated at 68 percent when challenger Joe Biden defeated incumbent Republican President Donald Trump in 2020).
This year, that comes with a caveat: The Hamas-led terror attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, and antisemitism linked to anti-Israel protests on university campuses and in public spaces. It remains to be seen how these events will impact the contest between Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Before Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 and Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee, he and Trump jousted for the backing of Jewish Americans.
The 45th president touted his recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, and the Abraham Accords that led to Israel establishing diplomatic relations with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, and later Morocco.
The 46th president boasted of ties dating back to his meeting then-Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir (while passing over a reported rebuke years later from then-Prime Minister Menachem Begin). Biden endeared himself to many Israelis by visiting within two weeks after the Oct. 7 terror attacks and, during the June 27 debate in Atlanta, cited his role in forming an international coalition to protect Israel when Iran launched missiles in April.
Harris — whose husband, Doug Emhoff, is Jewish — lacks such links. She has said that her policies would mirror Biden’s, starting with efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the remaining 101 hostages (one-third of whom are believed to be dead). On a key issue, Harris’ campaign has repeated her opposition to an arms embargo against Israel.
Harris tried to thread a needle in her speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. “I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself, and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself, because the people of Israel must never again face the horror that a terrorist organization called Hamas caused on Oct. 7, including unspeakable sexual violence and the massacre of young people at a music festival,” she said.
“At the same time, what has happened in Gaza over the past 10 months is devastating. So many innocent lives lost. Desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, over and over again. The scale of suffering is heartbreaking,” she continued.
“President Biden and I are working to end this war, such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination,” Harris said.
During the June 27 debate Trump asserted that, had he been in the White House, Russian President Vladimir Putin “never would have invaded Ukraine . . . Just like Israel would have never been invaded in a million years by Hamas. You know why? Because Iran was broke with me. I wouldn’t let anybody do business with them. They ran out of money. They were broke. They had no money for Hamas. They had no money for anything, no money for terror.”
During the Sept. 10 debate, Trump said of Harris: “She hates Israel. If she’s president, I believe that Israel will not exist within two years from now.” He followed that up in a Sept. 19 speech, telling the Israel American Council: “If I don’t win, I believe Israel will be eradicated.”
Throughout the campaign, Trump has ridiculed Jews who vote Democratic. Those comments have included:
“Any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion.”
“I think any Jewish people that vote for a Democrat, I think it shows either a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty.”
“If anybody I know is Jewish and they would vote for Kamala over me, they should have their head examined.”
In mid-September, Trump told the Israel American Council, “If I don’t win this election – and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that . . .” The American Jewish Committee and the Anti-Defamation League were among Jewish groups that labeled Trump’s statement as antisemitic and warned that it could provoke anti-Jewish acts if Trump loses the election.
At various times, Trump has suggested that he would win 40 or 50 percent of the Jewish vote. The largest estimated percentage of the Jewish vote garnered by a Republican candidate in the past century was 40 percent in 1956 by then-incumbent Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower, followed by 39 percent for Ronald Reagan in 1976. Trump received an estimated 24 percent when he elected in 2016 and 30 percent in his unsuccessful 2020 re-election bid.
The Jewish Democratic Council of America published a survey of 800 self-identified Jewish registered voters, conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 1, that claimed 72 percent supporting Harris and 25 percent Trump. An April survey conducted for the Jewish Electorate Institute reported that 67 percent of Jewish voters would back Biden.
An example of all that talk about Jewish interests came in August, when the political news cycle briefly was consumed by talk about who Harris did not pick as her running mate. Republicans suggested that religion influenced Harris’ choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz rather than Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. “Everyone thought it was going to be Shapiro, it turned out not to be Shapiro,” Trump told Fox News. “I have very little doubt that it was not for the reason we’re talking about. It was because of the fact that he’s Jewish.”
Shapiro sought to put the kibosh on this idea, telling the Democratic National Convention: “Donald Trump is the least credible person to listen to when it comes to hate and bigotry and certainly antisemitism. He’s trying to use me. He’s trying to use other Jews to divide Americans further.”
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